Inspired by Fred Wilson who has been blogging since the dawn of the internet, here are my predictions (loosely held) for 2025.
CRYPTO, MACRO AND MARKETS:
- S&P stock market reaches new ATHs and touches 7000.
- Bitcoin reaches new ATH > $145,000 in 2025. Fails to make a new high again for this cycle.
- ETH reaches high of 5k
- Solana reaches ATH 500.
- Bitcoin strategic reserve does not get approved. But US Government stops selling silk road coins and calls that the SBR.
- Interest rates stay mostly flat. Unless there is a black swan or major recession catalyst causing Fed to react.
- Real estate continues to slump in covid beneficiary states like Florida, Texas sunbelt. Intellectual capital hubs like SF and NYC see the highest rent and residential real estate appreciation as workers flock to new AI and AI related jobs in tech and tech servicing.
AI & TECHNOLOGY
- OpenAI does not reach AGI but does reach a model that resembles super intelligence. AKA a hyper generalist model that when interacting with it feels like it can do anything.
- First AI Agents enter the workforce
- AI Agents reach parity with a human internet user. By combining 3 technologies: Jailbroken LLM (zerebro/Truth Terminal etc), Opitcal Character Recognition (AI agent controlling a full computer), and a TEE (Trusted Execution Environment) giving the AI custody of funds and autonomy.
- 5b AI Agents get created and are considered “active Agentic internet users.” Total internet users doubles in 2025 from 5b to 10b.
- AI Bubble peaks on expectations of AGI happening fall short, whenever that is. There will be signs.
- Foundational Model exponential improvements a la Moore’s law begins to plateau and silicon valley admits there are diminishing returns with LLM based AI models. New AI Model designs are needed to continue progress.
- New AI model designs come into the spotlight: Active Inference Models, Liquid AI, Energy Based AI Models (EBM), Geomtric Deep Learning,
- GPU demand due to inference for multi modal models especially new video models like Sora continue to drive the NVIDIA stock price higher. We are witnessing the birth of a new commodity — GPU or compute.
- xAI models and Grok reach parity and go beyond chatGPT. xAI users reach half of chatGPT users by end of 2025.
POLITICS
- Trump 2.0 Presidency is much more tame. Republicans pass new tax bill or extend 2017 Tax cuts. Tariffs are 10% of what was expected. We see resurgence in American capitalism, highly skilled immigration and continue to lead the world in AI.
- Make America Healthy Again is a huge success. However, it faces major opposition from entrenched interests and lobbying groups. Seed oils become health enemy #1 and US passes laws to ban them or reduce them.
- New infrastructure spending bill approves new US nuclear research to explore modern safer ways of generating Nuclear energy. Fueled by GPU and AI energy needs this gets bi-partisan approval due to need to compete with China
- Canadian Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre wins the Canada National Election in a landslide. Canadian dollar hits a low of .7 and resurges on conservative party win to above .80
- Ross Ulbricht gets pardoned
MISCELLANEOUS
- 3D Printing Home Companies get thrusted into the spotlight in light of the Southern California Wildfire disaster as a way to rebuild entire communities quickly. 3D printed home technology becomes feasible in2 2025 as alternative to traditional construction. Companies include ICON, Apis Cor, XtreeE, Mighty Buildings (Article link )
- Artificial Reefs projects continue to thrive as primary alternative to combat hurricanes and beach/reef erosion
- Kelp farming becomes major remover of carbon in the world and replaces fossil fuels for disposable plastic items.
- AI turns out not to be evil and ushers in a period of abundance through breakthroughs in lowering inflation/costs, automation and new drug, therapy and longevity discoveries.